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WNBA · saved pre-tip forecasts vs. finals

How Courtside's WNBA minutes and points projections compared with results.

This is a descriptive record of 686 player-game comparisons in 66 verified final games across 22 slate dates, from Aug 20, 2026 to Sep 30, 2026. It includes only players with both a saved pre-tip forecast and a validated final result.

Inspect every game
686 player-game comparisons

One player can appear in more than one game. This is a selected sample, not the full forecast ledger.

4.9 minutes average absolute error

The average size of the minutes miss across the included player-game pairs.

4.8 points average absolute error

The average size of the points miss across the same included pairs.

Starter and bench samples

Role in the verified game record

The figures below use each player-game comparison once. They describe the listed sample; a different mix of games or players could change the averages.

WNBA saved pre-tip forecast absolute errors by recorded player role
Recorded rolePlayer-game pairsMinutes mean absolute errorPoints mean absolute error
Starter5784.65.0
Bench1086.44.1

Game-by-game results

Most recent first · open each source recap

Each linked recap shows the saved forecast and final result for every included player. Game averages weight only that game's comparable players; the overall averages above weight every player-game pair equally.

Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings · Final 100–108 · 16 player-game pairs8.0 min · 8.5 pts Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics · Final 93–75 · 14 player-game pairs6.8 min · 4.5 pts Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty · Final 71–87 · 13 player-game pairs7.1 min · 4.4 pts Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever · Final 89–99 · 12 player-game pairs5.2 min · 3.4 pts New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx · Final 91–75 · 11 player-game pairs5.0 min · 4.6 pts Dallas Wings at Golden State Valkyries · Final 80–104 · 17 player-game pairs4.2 min · 5.2 pts Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces · Final 85–102 · 13 player-game pairs4.4 min · 4.6 pts Washington Mystics at Atlanta Dream · Final 77–92 · 6 player-game pairs4.2 min · 3.0 pts Chicago Sky at Washington Mystics · Final 93–101 · 9 player-game pairs5.1 min · 5.5 pts Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks · Final 76–75 · 5 player-game pairs5.1 min · 4.3 pts Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury · Final 100–82 · 5 player-game pairs3.8 min · 8.1 pts Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty · Final 83–65 · 11 player-game pairs6.5 min · 6.2 pts Dallas Wings at Seattle Storm · Final 103–91 · 6 player-game pairs3.3 min · 5.6 pts Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics · Final 69–79 · 10 player-game pairs4.3 min · 3.9 pts Minnesota Lynx at Indiana Fever · Final 77–96 · 11 player-game pairs10.4 min · 6.5 pts Toronto Tempo at Chicago Sky · Final 85–97 · 7 player-game pairs1.9 min · 5.9 pts Los Angeles Sparks at Las Vegas Aces · Final 79–89 · 8 player-game pairs3.6 min · 5.3 pts Golden State Valkyries at Portland Fire · Final 82–90 · 9 player-game pairs6.8 min · 2.2 pts Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty · Final 95–84 · 13 player-game pairs5.1 min · 4.6 pts Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury · Final 86–87 · 12 player-game pairs4.7 min · 4.0 pts Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun · Final 101–89 · 9 player-game pairs5.1 min · 4.3 pts New York Liberty at Toronto Tempo · Final 106–69 · 11 player-game pairs5.1 min · 6.0 pts Washington Mystics at Indiana Fever · Final 93–77 · 13 player-game pairs3.8 min · 3.4 pts Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks · Final 84–105 · 6 player-game pairs3.2 min · 3.9 pts Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces · Final 77–98 · 10 player-game pairs2.0 min · 5.7 pts Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings · Final 82–87 · 9 player-game pairs4.1 min · 4.9 pts Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream · Final 81–106 · 7 player-game pairs6.8 min · 4.6 pts Seattle Storm at Golden State Valkyries · Final 57–70 · 10 player-game pairs6.9 min · 4.5 pts Indiana Fever at Toronto Tempo · Final 103–85 · 10 player-game pairs3.5 min · 4.0 pts New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx · Final 93–81 · 10 player-game pairs3.8 min · 3.8 pts Portland Fire at Golden State Valkyries · Final 66–82 · 6 player-game pairs4.2 min · 6.7 pts Connecticut Sun at Atlanta Dream · Final 59–103 · 11 player-game pairs7.8 min · 5.8 pts Washington Mystics at Chicago Sky · Final 110–80 · 8 player-game pairs4.3 min · 4.1 pts Los Angeles Sparks at Dallas Wings · Final 77–97 · 11 player-game pairs3.4 min · 2.8 pts Phoenix Mercury at Portland Fire · Final 94–91 · 4 player-game pairs3.5 min · 5.2 pts Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm · Final 114–77 · 9 player-game pairs3.7 min · 6.2 pts Minnesota Lynx at Atlanta Dream · Final 81–89 · 10 player-game pairs2.3 min · 3.3 pts Los Angeles Sparks at Seattle Storm · Final 90–74 · 12 player-game pairs4.6 min · 3.5 pts Golden State Valkyries at Portland Fire · Final 86–69 · 10 player-game pairs6.1 min · 4.9 pts Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings · Final 71–97 · 11 player-game pairs5.6 min · 4.4 pts Chicago Sky at New York Liberty · Final 66–85 · 11 player-game pairs6.7 min · 4.7 pts Toronto Tempo at Phoenix Mercury · Final 69–101 · 9 player-game pairs3.3 min · 4.2 pts Portland Fire at Atlanta Dream · Final 101–83 · 11 player-game pairs3.1 min · 5.8 pts Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever · Final 91–111 · 11 player-game pairs4.5 min · 4.2 pts Toronto Tempo at Las Vegas Aces · Final 73–93 · 8 player-game pairs2.8 min · 3.0 pts Washington Mystics at Los Angeles Sparks · Final 82–88 · 12 player-game pairs1.7 min · 3.0 pts Golden State Valkyries at New York Liberty · Final 79–60 · 12 player-game pairs3.2 min · 5.7 pts Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury · Final 80–73 · 13 player-game pairs3.3 min · 6.5 pts Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun · Final 89–64 · 10 player-game pairs8.0 min · 4.3 pts Toronto Tempo at Seattle Storm · Final 78–90 · 10 player-game pairs4.2 min · 4.0 pts Chicago Sky at Connecticut Sun · Final 81–87 · 9 player-game pairs6.4 min · 8.4 pts Portland Fire at Dallas Wings · Final 78–96 · 12 player-game pairs3.3 min · 3.0 pts Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury · Final 94–84 · 12 player-game pairs4.2 min · 3.8 pts Golden State Valkyries at Minnesota Lynx · Final 80–66 · 12 player-game pairs5.9 min · 5.4 pts Atlanta Dream at Los Angeles Sparks · Final 78–71 · 13 player-game pairs3.3 min · 4.0 pts Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings · Final 70–92 · 11 player-game pairs5.6 min · 5.8 pts Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky · Final 113–90 · 11 player-game pairs4.6 min · 5.7 pts Washington Mystics at Portland Fire · Final 105–100 · 10 player-game pairs2.8 min · 6.3 pts Las Vegas Aces at Toronto Tempo · Final 88–78 · 9 player-game pairs4.6 min · 2.0 pts Indiana Fever at New York Liberty · Final 102–109 · 15 player-game pairs4.4 min · 3.4 pts Connecticut Sun at Los Angeles Sparks · Final 68–77 · 13 player-game pairs5.5 min · 3.9 pts Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury · Final 99–89 · 12 player-game pairs3.5 min · 4.6 pts Portland Fire at Toronto Tempo · Final 79–82 · 10 player-game pairs8.5 min · 7.3 pts Indiana Fever at Dallas Wings · Final 85–91 · 12 player-game pairs7.4 min · 8.7 pts Connecticut Sun at Las Vegas Aces · Final 78–101 · 10 player-game pairs4.9 min · 3.6 pts Atlanta Dream at Los Angeles Sparks · Final 124–88 · 13 player-game pairs7.2 min · 5.1 pts
Calculation and limits

What this track record measures.

A recap enters this record only after a verified final score and actual starting lineups are available, with at least three saved, pre-tip forecast-and-result pairs across both teams. A player enters the calculation only when their saved forecast and played final minutes and points are both present. Missing forecasts and players who did not play are not filled in.

For each included player, absolute error is the distance between the saved projection and the final result, ignoring whether the forecast was high or low. We add those distances and divide by the number of included player-game pairs. The game links expose the underlying pairs so readers can check the arithmetic.

This is a selected, incomplete sample of games and players. The averages do not estimate accuracy for all Courtside forecasts, future games, betting outcomes, or any cause of an individual miss. The starter and bench groups describe roles in the verified game records.

Model versions represented: gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 (686 pairs). If model versions change, the combined figures span those versions.

Browse the full verified recap archive