Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings: projection vs. actual, September 19, 2026
Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.
How the saved forecasts compared
9 comparable playersAcross the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 4.1 minutes and 4.9 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.
Arike Ogunbowale played 36.7 minutes against 28.1 projected, a 8.6-minute gap in this sample.
Noemie Brochant scored 7 points against 8.7 projected, a 1.7-point gap.
| Player | Minutes Proj / Actual | Difference | Points Proj / Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 19, 12:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.7 / 30.4 | +0.7 | 12.2 / 19 | +6.8 |
| Natasha MackPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 19, 12:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 23.5 / 29.0 | +5.5 | 9.1 / 16 | +6.9 |
| Noemie BrochantPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 19, 12:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 27.7 / 32.5 | +4.8 | 8.7 / 7 | -1.7 |
| Sami WhitcombPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 19, 12:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 20.8 / 24.6 | +3.8 | 6.8 / 4 | -2.8 |
| Arike OgunbowaleDallas Wings · StarterForecast saved Sep 19, 12:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 28.1 / 36.7 | +8.6 | 15.5 / 22 | +6.5 |
| Awak KuierDallas Wings · StarterForecast saved Sep 19, 12:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 27.5 / 27.4 | -0.1 | 8.9 / 11 | +2.1 |
| Jessica ShepardDallas Wings · StarterForecast saved Sep 19, 12:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.9 / 26.9 | -3.0 | 14.4 / 10 | -4.4 |
| Maddy SiegristDallas Wings · StarterForecast saved Sep 19, 12:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 19.3 / 11.3 | -8.0 | 9.3 / 3 | -6.3 |
| Paige BueckersDallas Wings · StarterForecast saved Sep 19, 12:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 28.9 / 31.5 | +2.6 | 19.3 / 26 | +6.7 |
The clock matters.
We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.
Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.
See the combined WNBA projection track record
Compare this game with other verified meetings between these teams .
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