Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury: projection vs. actual.
2 verified final games, 21 player forecast-to-result pairs and 9 players with forecasts in multiple meetings. The forecasts were saved before tip-off; this review does not predict their next game.
See the game resultsHow each side compared
Selected games onlyThe table weights each player-game forecast equally. A smaller average absolute miss means the saved projection was closer to the final result among players with both records; it is not a win probability or a future-game forecast.
| Team | Record | Points scored | Compared players | Minutes avg. abs. miss | Points avg. abs. miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Wings | 1–1 | 173 | 12 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| Phoenix Mercury | 1–1 | 169 | 9 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
Actual minutes averaged 0.1 minutes below the saved forecasts; actual points averaged 0.6 points above the saved forecasts.
Paige Bueckers had this side's largest points gap: 30 scored against 19.2 saved for Mon, Sep 21 ↗.
Actual minutes averaged 0.2 minutes above the saved forecasts; actual points averaged 1.7 points above the saved forecasts.
Kahleah Copper had this side's largest points gap: 31 scored against 23.6 saved for Mon, Sep 21 ↗.
Players compared in multiple meetings
9 repeat playersThese players had a saved pre-tip forecast and final result in at least two linked games. Averages here are across their own appearances in this selected series, so you can see recurring minutes and points gaps without mixing in other opponents.
| Player | Games | Minutes proj / actual | Minutes difference | Points proj / actual | Points difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arike OgunbowaleDallas Wings | 2 | 28.3 / 33.7 | +5.4 | 15.8 / 14.5 | -1.3 |
| Paige BueckersDallas Wings | 2 | 28.6 / 32.4 | +3.7 | 19.2 / 28.0 | +8.8 |
| Maddy SiegristDallas Wings | 2 | 18.9 / 15.2 | -3.7 | 8.9 / 6.0 | -2.9 |
| Jessica ShepardDallas Wings | 2 | 29.1 / 31.6 | +2.5 | 13.8 / 13.5 | -0.3 |
| Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury | 2 | 29.4 / 31.3 | +1.8 | 12.4 / 17.0 | +4.6 |
| Awak KuierDallas Wings | 2 | 26.7 / 27.9 | +1.2 | 8.7 / 9.5 | +0.8 |
| Natasha MackPhoenix Mercury | 2 | 24.5 / 25.4 | +0.9 | 9.7 / 14.0 | +4.3 |
| Noemie BrochantPhoenix Mercury | 2 | 28.2 / 27.4 | -0.8 | 8.8 / 4.5 | -4.3 |
| Sami WhitcombPhoenix Mercury | 2 | 20.5 / 19.9 | -0.6 | 6.6 / 6.0 | -0.6 |
The verified games
Newest first · open the source recapDallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings
Only forecasts saved before each tip-off.
Each linked recap passed the final-score, actual-lineup and saved pre-tip forecast checks. This page requires two distinct games, at least 20 player-game pairs, at least eight pairs from each team and at least five players observed in multiple meetings. Missing forecasts are never filled from a later model run.
This is a selected historical sample, not every meeting between these teams and not a forecast for a future game. Differences are actual minus projected; average absolute misses ignore direction. Follow the source recaps to inspect each included player and capture time.
Browse other qualified WNBA matchups ↗