Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury: projection vs. actual, September 21, 2026
Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.
How the saved forecasts compared
12 comparable playersAcross the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 4.7 minutes and 4.0 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.
Alysha Clark played 3.4 minutes against 15.9 projected, a 12.5-minute gap in this sample.
Alysha Clark scored 4 points against 4.3 projected, a 0.3-point gap.
| Player | Minutes Proj / Actual | Difference | Points Proj / Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arike OgunbowaleDallas Wings · StarterForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 28.5 / 30.7 | +2.2 | 16.1 / 7 | -9.1 |
| Awak KuierDallas Wings · StarterForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 25.9 / 28.3 | +2.4 | 8.6 / 8 | -0.6 |
| Jessica ShepardDallas Wings · StarterForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 28.2 / 36.2 | +8.0 | 13.2 / 17 | +3.8 |
| Maddy SiegristDallas Wings · StarterForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 18.4 / 19.1 | +0.7 | 8.4 / 9 | +0.6 |
| Paige BueckersDallas Wings · StarterForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 28.3 / 33.2 | +4.9 | 19.2 / 30 | +10.8 |
| Alysha ClarkDallas Wings · BenchForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 15.9 / 3.4 | -12.5 | 4.3 / 4 | -0.3 |
| Aziaha JamesDallas Wings · BenchForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 15.0 / 7.7 | -7.3 | 7.3 / 4 | -3.3 |
| Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.2 / 32.1 | +2.9 | 12.6 / 15 | +2.4 |
| Kahleah CopperPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 34.2 / 33.8 | -0.4 | 23.6 / 31 | +7.4 |
| Natasha MackPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 25.5 / 21.7 | -3.8 | 10.3 / 12 | +1.7 |
| Noemie BrochantPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 28.7 / 22.3 | -6.4 | 8.8 / 2 | -6.8 |
| Sami WhitcombPhoenix Mercury · BenchForecast saved Sep 21, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 20.2 / 15.2 | -5.0 | 6.3 / 8 | +1.7 |
The clock matters.
We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.
Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.
See the combined WNBA projection track record
Compare this game with other verified meetings between these teams .
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