Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury: projection vs. actual, September 24, 2026
Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.
How the saved forecasts compared
5 comparable playersAcross the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 3.8 minutes and 8.1 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.
Chelsea Gray played 35.5 minutes against 29.0 projected, a 6.5-minute gap in this sample.
Chelsea Gray scored 12 points against 10.7 projected, a 1.3-point gap.
| Player | Minutes Proj / Actual | Difference | Points Proj / Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja WilsonLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Sep 24, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.4 / 34.6 | +4.2 | 24.7 / 34 | +9.3 |
| Chelsea GrayLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Sep 24, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.0 / 35.5 | +6.5 | 10.7 / 12 | +1.3 |
| Jackie YoungLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Sep 24, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.8 / 34.0 | +3.2 | 22.3 / 5 | -17.3 |
| Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 24, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.3 / 26.5 | -2.8 | 12.6 / 6 | -6.6 |
| Kahleah CopperPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 24, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 34.0 / 31.5 | -2.5 | 24.2 / 18 | -6.2 |
The clock matters.
We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.
Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.
See the combined WNBA projection track record
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