Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury: projection vs. actual, August 25, 2026
Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.
How the saved forecasts compared
12 comparable playersAcross the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 4.2 minutes and 3.8 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.
Kelsey Plum played 16.6 minutes against 25.0 projected, a 8.4-minute gap in this sample.
Noemie Brochant scored 7 points against 7.2 projected, a 0.2-point gap.
| Player | Minutes Proj / Actual | Difference | Points Proj / Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 33.3 / 31.5 | -1.8 | 14.4 / 16 | +1.6 |
| Kahleah CopperPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 34.4 / 30.5 | -3.9 | 21.5 / 19 | -2.5 |
| Natasha MackPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 18.1 / 24.8 | +6.7 | 6.3 / 19 | +12.7 |
| Noemie BrochantPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 25.6 / 24.6 | -1.0 | 7.2 / 7 | -0.2 |
| Kelsey PlumPhoenix Mercury · BenchForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 25.0 / 16.6 | -8.4 | 16.9 / 10 | -6.9 |
| Georgia AmooreWashington Mystics · StarterForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 22.6 / 26.7 | +4.1 | 5.7 / 7 | +1.3 |
| Kiki IriafenWashington Mystics · StarterForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.1 / 28.7 | -0.4 | 15.7 / 18 | +2.3 |
| Michaela OnyenwereWashington Mystics · StarterForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 22.9 / 19.3 | -3.6 | 7.2 / 10 | +2.8 |
| Shakira AustinWashington Mystics · StarterForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.2 / 24.1 | -6.1 | 20.3 / 16 | -4.3 |
| Sonia CitronWashington Mystics · StarterForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 31.9 / 29.5 | -2.4 | 15.6 / 19 | +3.4 |
| Cotie McMahonWashington Mystics · BenchForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 18.1 / 11.8 | -6.3 | 6.6 / 3 | -3.6 |
| Lauren BettsWashington Mystics · BenchForecast saved Aug 25, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 18.4 / 24.1 | +5.7 | 6.2 / 10 | +3.8 |
The clock matters.
We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.
Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.
See the combined WNBA projection track record
Compare this game with other verified meetings between these teams .
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