WNBA · Final · Tue, Sep 22

Los Angeles Sparks at Las Vegas Aces: projection vs. actual, September 22, 2026

Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.

Los Angeles Sparks79–Las Vegas Aces89

How the saved forecasts compared

8 comparable players

Across the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 3.6 minutes and 5.3 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.

Largest minutes difference

Mai Yamamoto played 11.1 minutes against 19.9 projected, a 8.8-minute gap in this sample.

Closest points forecast

Nneka Ogwumike scored 17 points against 17.7 projected, a 0.7-point gap.

Courtside saved pregame minutes and points compared with official final results
Player	Minutes Proj / Actual	Difference	Points Proj / Actual	Difference
Ariel AtkinsLos Angeles Sparks · StarterForecast saved Sep 22, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	24.1 / 22.9	-1.2	7.4 / 9	+1.6
Nneka OgwumikeLos Angeles Sparks · StarterForecast saved Sep 22, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	28.6 / 29.6	+1.0	17.7 / 17	-0.7
Rae BurrellLos Angeles Sparks · StarterForecast saved Sep 22, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	27.2 / 28.6	+1.4	16.2 / 11	-5.2
A'ja WilsonLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Sep 22, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	29.5 / 32.1	+2.6	25.0 / 18	-7.0
Chelsea GrayLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Sep 22, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	28.2 / 32.6	+4.4	9.8 / 17	+7.2
Jackie YoungLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Sep 22, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	29.6 / 33.9	+4.3	22.2 / 14	-8.2
Stephanie TalbotLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Sep 22, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	19.8 / 24.8	+5.0	4.8 / 14	+9.2
Mai YamamotoLas Vegas Aces · BenchForecast saved Sep 22, 9:40 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	19.9 / 11.1	-8.8	6.1 / 3	-3.1

Method

The clock matters.

We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.

Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.

See the combined WNBA projection track record

Browse more verified game recaps