WNBA · Final · Thu, Sep 17

Phoenix Mercury at Portland Fire: projection vs. actual, September 17, 2026

Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.

Phoenix Mercury94–Portland Fire91

How the saved forecasts compared

4 comparable players

Across the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 3.5 minutes and 5.2 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.

Largest minutes difference

Nyadiew Puoch played 29.0 minutes against 20.6 projected, a 8.4-minute gap in this sample.

Closest points forecast

Natasha Mack scored 11 points against 8.4 projected, a 2.6-point gap.

Courtside saved pregame minutes and points compared with official final results
Player	Minutes Proj / Actual	Difference	Points Proj / Actual	Difference
Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 17, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	30.4 / 30.6	+0.2	11.6 / 18	+6.4
Natasha MackPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Sep 17, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	21.8 / 26.6	+4.8	8.4 / 11	+2.6
Emily EngstlerPortland Fire · StarterForecast saved Sep 17, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	28.7 / 29.4	+0.7	13.3 / 21	+7.7
Nyadiew PuochPortland Fire · StarterForecast saved Sep 17, 9:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1	20.6 / 29.0	+8.4	4.8 / 9	+4.2

Method

The clock matters.

We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.

Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.

See the combined WNBA projection track record

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