Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury: projection vs. actual.
2 verified final games, 25 player forecast-to-result pairs and 10 players with forecasts in multiple meetings. The forecasts were saved before tip-off; this review does not predict their next game.
See the game resultsHow each side compared
Selected games onlyThe table weights each player-game forecast equally. A smaller average absolute miss means the saved projection was closer to the final result among players with both records; it is not a win probability or a future-game forecast.
| Team | Record | Points scored | Compared players | Minutes avg. abs. miss | Points avg. abs. miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Dream | 2–0 | 195 | 14 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Phoenix Mercury | 0–2 | 171 | 11 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
Actual minutes averaged 1.5 minutes above the saved forecasts; actual points averaged 1.3 points above the saved forecasts.
Angel Reese had this side's largest points gap: 31 scored against 16.5 saved for Sat, Aug 22 ↗.
Actual minutes averaged 0.8 minutes above the saved forecasts; actual points averaged 1.0 points below the saved forecasts.
Kahleah Copper had this side's largest points gap: 38 scored against 20.2 saved for Sat, Aug 22 ↗.
Players compared in multiple meetings
10 repeat playersThese players had a saved pre-tip forecast and final result in at least two linked games. Averages here are across their own appearances in this selected series, so you can see recurring minutes and points gaps without mixing in other opponents.
| Player | Games | Minutes proj / actual | Minutes difference | Points proj / actual | Points difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah CopperPhoenix Mercury | 2 | 31.6 / 36.3 | +4.7 | 20.0 / 26.0 | +6.0 |
| Angel ReeseAtlanta Dream | 2 | 29.3 / 33.8 | +4.5 | 15.2 / 22.5 | +7.3 |
| Rhyne HowardAtlanta Dream | 2 | 32.9 / 35.6 | +2.8 | 16.5 / 21.5 | +5.0 |
| Allisha GrayAtlanta Dream | 2 | 30.9 / 33.4 | +2.5 | 19.1 / 18.5 | -0.6 |
| Naz HillmonAtlanta Dream | 2 | 27.7 / 30.3 | +2.5 | 9.1 / 9.0 | -0.1 |
| Jordin CanadaAtlanta Dream | 2 | 31.6 / 29.5 | -2.1 | 11.1 / 14.5 | +3.4 |
| DeWanna BonnerPhoenix Mercury | 2 | 29.6 / 30.3 | +0.7 | 13.1 / 11.5 | -1.6 |
| Isobel BorlaseAtlanta Dream | 2 | 15.4 / 14.8 | -0.6 | 5.4 / 2.0 | -3.4 |
| Natasha MackPhoenix Mercury | 2 | 16.8 / 16.4 | -0.5 | 6.5 / 1.0 | -5.5 |
| Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury | 2 | 35.2 / 35.4 | +0.1 | 15.6 / 14.0 | -1.6 |
The verified games
Newest first · open the source recapAtlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury at Atlanta Dream
Only forecasts saved before each tip-off.
Each linked recap passed the final-score, actual-lineup and saved pre-tip forecast checks. This page requires two distinct games, at least 20 player-game pairs, at least eight pairs from each team and at least five players observed in multiple meetings. Missing forecasts are never filled from a later model run.
This is a selected historical sample, not every meeting between these teams and not a forecast for a future game. Differences are actual minus projected; average absolute misses ignore direction. Follow the source recaps to inspect each included player and capture time.
Browse other qualified WNBA matchups ↗