Phoenix Mercury at Atlanta Dream: projection vs. actual, August 5, 2026
Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.
How the saved forecasts compared
13 comparable playersAcross the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 3.2 minutes and 3.4 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.
Angel Reese played 32.4 minutes against 25.5 projected, a 6.9-minute gap in this sample.
Brionna Jones scored 9 points against 9.0 projected, a 0.0-point gap.
| Player | Minutes Proj / Actual | Difference | Points Proj / Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 36.3 / 37.6 | +1.3 | 16.0 / 17 | +1.0 |
| DeWanna BonnerPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.5 / 30.5 | -0.0 | 13.5 / 11 | -2.5 |
| Kahleah CopperPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.0 / 35.5 | +6.5 | 19.9 / 14 | -5.9 |
| Kelsey PlumPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 31.1 / 26.4 | -4.7 | 20.8 / 19 | -1.8 |
| Natasha MackPhoenix Mercury · BenchForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 16.6 / 13.6 | -3.0 | 6.5 / 2 | -4.5 |
| Valeriane AyayiPhoenix Mercury · BenchForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 18.7 / 12.8 | -5.9 | 7.5 / 3 | -4.5 |
| Allisha GrayAtlanta Dream · StarterForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.2 / 28.6 | -1.6 | 17.6 / 20 | +2.4 |
| Angel ReeseAtlanta Dream · StarterForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 25.5 / 32.4 | +6.9 | 13.9 / 14 | +0.1 |
| Jordin CanadaAtlanta Dream · StarterForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 32.4 / 29.8 | -2.6 | 10.6 / 17 | +6.4 |
| Naz HillmonAtlanta Dream · StarterForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 26.7 / 25.8 | -0.9 | 9.3 / 10 | +0.7 |
| Rhyne HowardAtlanta Dream · StarterForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 31.3 / 33.5 | +2.2 | 13.5 / 23 | +9.5 |
| Brionna JonesAtlanta Dream · BenchForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 17.2 / 20.6 | +3.4 | 9.0 / 9 | -0.0 |
| Isobel BorlaseAtlanta Dream · BenchForecast saved Aug 5, 6:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 14.1 / 16.7 | +2.6 | 5.3 / 0 | -5.3 |
The clock matters.
We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.
Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.
See the combined WNBA projection track record
Compare this game with other verified meetings between these teams .
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