Portland Fire at Phoenix Mercury: projection vs. actual, August 16, 2026
Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.
How the saved forecasts compared
12 comparable playersAcross the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 3.3 minutes and 4.0 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.
Sami Whitcomb played 25.5 minutes against 15.7 projected, a 9.8-minute gap in this sample.
Emily Engstler scored 9 points against 8.8 projected, a 0.2-point gap.
| Player | Minutes Proj / Actual | Difference | Points Proj / Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 16, 6:42 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 34.9 / 33.9 | -1.0 | 15.2 / 17 | +1.8 |
| DeWanna BonnerPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 16, 6:42 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 28.3 / 32.7 | +4.4 | 11.8 / 23 | +11.2 |
| Kahleah CopperPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 16, 6:42 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 33.8 / 36.1 | +2.3 | 20.2 / 19 | -1.2 |
| Noemie BrochantPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 16, 6:36 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 24.0 / 27.2 | +3.2 | 7.2 / 0 | -7.2 |
| Sami WhitcombPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 16, 6:36 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 15.7 / 25.5 | +9.8 | 4.1 / 11 | +6.9 |
| Natasha MackPhoenix Mercury · BenchForecast saved Aug 16, 6:36 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 17.1 / 18.1 | +1.0 | 6.5 / 7 | +0.5 |
| Valeriane AyayiPhoenix Mercury · BenchForecast saved Aug 16, 6:36 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 15.2 / 9.4 | -5.8 | 5.1 / 4 | -1.1 |
| Bridget CarletonPortland Fire · StarterForecast saved Aug 16, 6:42 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.0 / 31.7 | +1.7 | 16.0 / 9 | -7.0 |
| Carla LeitePortland Fire · StarterForecast saved Aug 16, 6:42 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 23.7 / 27.6 | +3.9 | 14.8 / 23 | +8.2 |
| Emily EngstlerPortland Fire · StarterForecast saved Aug 16, 6:36 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 24.1 / 22.1 | -2.0 | 8.8 / 9 | +0.2 |
| Megan DiLeoPortland Fire · StarterForecast saved Aug 16, 6:42 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 26.4 / 27.2 | +0.8 | 14.3 / 15 | +0.7 |
| Nyadiew PuochPortland Fire · StarterForecast saved Aug 16, 6:36 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 20.1 / 16.6 | -3.5 | 5.0 / 3 | -2.0 |
The clock matters.
We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.
Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.
See the combined WNBA projection track record
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