Phoenix Mercury at Los Angeles Sparks: projection vs. actual, August 11, 2026
Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.
How the saved forecasts compared
11 comparable playersAcross the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 3.2 minutes and 4.2 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.
Noemie Brochant played 30.1 minutes against 23.1 projected, a 7.0-minute gap in this sample.
Nneka Ogwumike scored 18 points against 17.3 projected, a 0.7-point gap.
| Player | Minutes Proj / Actual | Difference | Points Proj / Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 35.4 / 33.1 | -2.3 | 15.0 / 16 | +1.0 |
| DeWanna BonnerPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.4 / 27.0 | -2.4 | 12.4 / 11 | -1.4 |
| Kahleah CopperPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 34.1 / 35.1 | +1.0 | 20.9 / 18 | -2.9 |
| Noemie BrochantPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 23.1 / 30.1 | +7.0 | 5.7 / 24 | +18.3 |
| Natasha MackPhoenix Mercury · BenchForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 16.8 / 13.0 | -3.8 | 5.9 / 9 | +3.1 |
| Ariel AtkinsLos Angeles Sparks · StarterForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 28.9 / 31.9 | +3.0 | 9.8 / 5 | -4.8 |
| Dearica HambyLos Angeles Sparks · StarterForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.3 / 31.5 | +2.2 | 15.9 / 19 | +3.1 |
| Erica WheelerLos Angeles Sparks · StarterForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 27.2 / 29.9 | +2.7 | 11.1 / 7 | -4.1 |
| Nneka OgwumikeLos Angeles Sparks · StarterForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.1 / 32.5 | +2.4 | 17.3 / 18 | +0.7 |
| Rae BurrellLos Angeles Sparks · StarterForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.9 / 34.9 | +4.0 | 15.4 / 19 | +3.6 |
| Cameron BrinkLos Angeles Sparks · BenchForecast saved Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 20.2 / 16.0 | -4.2 | 10.1 / 7 | -3.1 |
The clock matters.
We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.
Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.
See the combined WNBA projection track record
Browse more verified game recaps