Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun: projection vs. actual, August 7, 2026
Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.
How the saved forecasts compared
9 comparable playersAcross the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 3.6 minutes and 4.6 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.
Olivia Nelson-Ododa played 16.1 minutes against 25.8 projected, a 9.7-minute gap in this sample.
Noemie Brochant scored 6 points against 4.6 projected, a 1.4-point gap.
| Player | Minutes Proj / Actual | Difference | Points Proj / Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa ThomasPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 7, 7:05 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 36.9 / 35.3 | -1.6 | 16.5 / 10 | -6.5 |
| DeWanna BonnerPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 7, 7:05 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.9 / 34.5 | +3.6 | 13.3 / 6 | -7.3 |
| Kahleah CopperPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 7, 7:05 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.2 / 34.0 | +3.8 | 19.7 / 16 | -3.7 |
| Kelsey PlumPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 7, 7:05 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.8 / 27.8 | -2.0 | 20.0 / 25 | +5.0 |
| Noemie BrochantPhoenix Mercury · StarterForecast saved Aug 7, 7:05 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 22.9 / 22.1 | -0.8 | 4.6 / 6 | +1.4 |
| Diamond MillerConnecticut Sun · StarterForecast saved Aug 7, 7:05 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 26.8 / 23.6 | -3.2 | 12.1 / 9 | -3.1 |
| Leila LacanConnecticut Sun · StarterForecast saved Aug 7, 7:05 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 28.0 / 31.1 | +3.1 | 12.1 / 9 | -3.1 |
| Olivia Nelson-OdodaConnecticut Sun · StarterForecast saved Aug 7, 7:05 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 25.8 / 16.1 | -9.7 | 12.6 / 7 | -5.6 |
| Kennedy BurkeConnecticut Sun · BenchForecast saved Aug 7, 7:05 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 24.3 / 19.5 | -4.8 | 8.8 / 15 | +6.2 |
The clock matters.
We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.
Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.
See the combined WNBA projection track record
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