Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces: projection vs. actual, October 1, 2026
Saved Courtside pregame forecasts beside the verified final result. Each forecast below was captured before this game tipped off.
How the saved forecasts compared
11 comparable playersAcross the players with both a saved pregame forecast and a final result, the average absolute miss was 5.6 minutes and 4.0 points. These are descriptive results for this game, not a model accuracy guarantee.
Jewell Loyd played 35.3 minutes against 25.5 projected, a 9.8-minute gap in this sample.
Sophie Cunningham scored 5 points against 4.9 projected, a 0.1-point gap.
| Player | Minutes Proj / Actual | Difference | Points Proj / Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliyah BostonIndiana Fever · StarterForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 23.4 / 31.5 | +8.1 | 13.3 / 19 | +5.7 |
| Caitlin ClarkIndiana Fever · StarterForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 30.4 / 36.7 | +6.3 | 20.9 / 18 | -2.9 |
| Kelsey MitchellIndiana Fever · StarterForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 29.6 / 36.2 | +6.6 | 22.7 / 23 | +0.3 |
| Lexie HullIndiana Fever · StarterForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 16.7 / 13.5 | -3.2 | 3.9 / 0 | -3.9 |
| Raven JohnsonIndiana Fever · BenchForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 20.0 / 18.8 | -1.2 | 6.2 / 2 | -4.2 |
| Sophie CunninghamIndiana Fever · BenchForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 20.9 / 23.8 | +2.9 | 4.9 / 5 | +0.1 |
| A'ja WilsonLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 33.2 / 37.1 | +3.9 | 27.8 / 36 | +8.2 |
| Chelsea GrayLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 33.7 / 40.0 | +6.3 | 12.1 / 23 | +10.9 |
| Jackie YoungLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 33.8 / 40.0 | +6.2 | 23.2 / 18 | -5.2 |
| Jewell LoydLas Vegas Aces · StarterForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 25.5 / 35.3 | +9.8 | 9.1 / 11 | +1.9 |
| Cheyenne Parker-TyusLas Vegas Aces · BenchForecast saved Oct 1, 8:35 PM EDT · Model gameplay-rotation-observer.v1 | 14.5 / 21.9 | +7.4 | 7.1 / 6 | -1.1 |
The clock matters.
We use each player's saved pre-tip forecast and compare it with a validated final box score. The table includes only players for whom both records are available. “Difference” is actual minus projected. Average absolute miss measures the size of those differences without cancellations.
Missing forecasts are not filled in after the game. The recap does not claim that the displayed sample represents every player or every Courtside prediction.
For this matchup, read the separately saved pregame baseline . Its recent-games estimates were not lineup-adjusted and are separate from the forecasts graded in this recap.
See the combined WNBA projection track record
Compare this game with other verified meetings between these teams .
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